Fantasy Draft Numba 2: The Big ‘Un

This was the big one. Brew Balls IV. This league has been running all four of my years at Vassar, and features some of the more epic smack talk you’ll see this side of, well, anywhere. I had the 4th overall pick (and the 21st), and I think I came out pretty well. There are definitely areas I need to address (the back end of the rotation and the bullpen, specifically), but I’ve got some strengths to deal from, notably speed (once again).

The League: 12-team, mixed, H2H. 19 players (3-bench).

The Categories: R, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, GIDP, E, AVG, OPS for offense. W, L, SV, HR, Ks, HLD, ERA, WHIP for pitchers.

Here we go:

1. Alfonso Soriano (OF-CHC)
The first three picks in order: Reyes, Pujols, Santana. Now, I love Jose Reyes, but the only guy I’m even considering taking over Pujols is Johan. It might be smart because of the triples category, though. I was really hoping that Santana would fall to me at 4. I was big-time bouncing back and forth between Soriano and Howard, but its hard to argue with getting Soriano here when he’s going at 2 or 3 in a lot of drafts. Errors count in this league, so hopefully he won’t be too atrocious in center at Wrigley.

2. Grady Sizemore (OF-CLE)
Sizemore is just plain money. He could be a legit MVP candidate this year. BP’s PECOTA metric gives him a projected VORP of 46.1, and that’s on the conservative side. Last year, his VORP was 69.1. He’s got speed and power, and last year posted an EQa of .312. He’s just gonna get better, kids. NB: The 12-13 wheel picks in this draft? Derek Jeter and Joe Nathan. It was going to be that kind of afternoon.

3. Brandon Webb (SP-ARI)
The guys over at MLB.com’s Fantasy 411 would probably upbraid me for taking pitching this early, but Carpenter went in the 2nd round and I got scared — plus, I missed out on Morneau by 3 picks or so. However, Webb is the reigning NL Cy Young, and has a good, solid young team around him. Plus, he has some of the pressure taken off of him with the Snakes re-acquisition of Randy Johnson, and getting the capable Doug Davis in a trade. I expect Webb to contend for the Cy again this season.

4. Rafael Furcal (SS-LAD)
If you ignore his shit April (most likely due to a sore back), Furcal was one of the most consistent producers in the NL last year. He gets on base a ton — he missed being the top OBP leadoff guy in the NL by 5 ten-thousandths of a point last season — steals bases, and scores runs. His line after July first last year was .338/.402/.535. I can live with that from my shortstop.

5. Brian Roberts (2B-BAL)
Roberts rebounded a bit slowly from his bad injury a few years ago, but there’s no reason why he can’t pick up right where he left off. He might be a good trade chip in this lineup, given some of the depth I have a little later and my strength in steals. He’s the 2nd or 3rd best second-bagger in the game, behind Utley and maybe Cano.

6. Scott Kazmir (SP-TB)
Probably should have picked another bat here, but I had Kazmir, Matt Cain, and Jeremy Bonderman targeted this round and Cain and Bonderman went before it came back to me. At this point, I’m feeling pretty good about my pitching staff. A real K-artist, PECOTA projects him to have an EQSO9 of 8.4 this year. His walk rate went down last year too, which is real good. He’s real dangerous if he stays healthy.

7. Trevor Hoffman (RP-SDP)
The run on closers went a little early, and I feel like I caught the last end of the top tier. However, turns out that he was the only real closer I got. I might have to do some chasing, which scares me a little bit because of the thin bench in BB4.

8. Prince Fielder (1B-MIL)
I really like the Brewers this year, and Fielder is one of their best bats. To get a first baseman like him in the 8th round I thought was a good move, especially after missing out on Morneau in the third round. PECOTA’s conservative projections for him are basically the same as he actually produced last season, so I’m excited.

9. Ryan Freel (2B,3B,OF-CIN)
I’ve always wanted to have this guy. He’s a speedster, has a good amount of power (especially playing in Cincinnati), and is eligible all over the field. I needed someone at 3rd base, and Zimmerman got snatched out from under me a round or two previous.

10. Nick Swisher (1B,OF-OAK)
Swisher will likely play in my 3rd outfield spot. I’m happy when my 3rd OF in the 10th round could hit 30+ HRs and possibly 100RBIs and 100 walks. Moneyball forever!

11. Dave Bush (SP-MIL)
This is where I make the Fantasy411 guys proud. I hope this wasn’t a big enough reach in the 11th round (I got some “huh?”s in the draft room after this pick. I really like Bush this year (he’s the only guy named Bush who I like this year) — he’s got a lot of upside, and the increased run support he’s going to get in Milwaukee this year I think absolutely has to help.

12. Todd Helton (1B-COL)
I was flabbergasted to see Helton still available in the 12th round, and snapped him up right quick. Helton’s still got some pop in him, and should be over his injury woes from last year. I’m glad he’s still in Colorado and not in Boston, but he should still be productive and will help my team.

13. Joel Zumaya (RP-DET)
Holds count in my league, and Zumaya is getting me those until the inevitable Todd Jones injury, at which point he should become the closer in Detroit. That is, unless he hasn’t stopped playing Guitar Hero — the alleged source of his arm soreness during last year’s World Series.

14. Jhonny Peralta (SS-CLE)
The Great Mr. Typo!  This is where things started to slip a bit in my opinion.  Peralta’s got a lot of upside this year, but now that I’ve drafted him I’m not sure he’s worth a roster spot at this point in the season, especially considering I’ve got better options at short.  We’ll see.

15. Bartolo Colon (LAA-SP)
This is me not doing enough research.  This was a bit of a panic pick, and I didn’t know that Colon wasn’t going to be ready for the beginning of the season.  If he’s even 70% as good as he was in his Cy season two years ago, I’ll be happy, but at the moment I don’t have any pitching depth, so he presents me with a bit of a dilemma.

16. Chad Tracy (ARI-3B)
Tracy can’t hit left handed pitching for shit and isn’t all that good away from Chase Field, so  he’s  gonna ride the bench for no, losing time at the hot corner to Freel.  If he starts to pick it up, he might be alright eventually.

17. Josh Bard (C-SDP)
I’m getting slammed for this pick, but I’m going to stick with him for a while.  I really think that he’s going to grow into the full time job this year — he’s not going to hit for average as much as he did last year, but if he hits .280 with 10-15 home runs I can live with it.

18. Conor Jackson (1B-ARI)
I ended up with a lot of younger guys this time around, which is both a good and a bad thing.  I’m not sure how much I can get out of Jackson, but he should be good insurance for Helton at the utility spot if nothing else.

19. Nate Robertson (SP-DET)
Not the most talented young pitcher on the Tigers staff (that would probably be Bonderman or Verlander), but he’s reliable.  Might pitch-or-ditch a little bit with this slot… we’ll see.  I think he’s good value in the last round.

Any thoughts?  I don’t think this was as strong as my last draft, but I have a few possible trading partners, including a monster one lined up to help me at 3rd, C, and in the bullpen.  I’d be giving up Sizemore, so I’m not sure it’s worth it.  My other trading option would involve Roberts for a closer and maybe another player.  I think I’m usually pretty good at drafting and working the wavier wire, but evaluating trades is admittedly not my strong suit.  I should be able to make something happen this year though — I’m optimistic.