Fantasy Draft Recap #3

I’m not sure who is reading this right now, or who could possibly care that much about my analysis of my own fantasy drafts, but really it’s more about practice for me at this point. I’d like to possibly write about this sort of thing for money some day, so the more I write the better. Here goes:

ESPN 5×5 roto league, 12 teams. 20 players, play 6 pitchers, 5 bench spots. I had the first overall pick, typical snake draft.

Without any further ado, I give you the Charlottesville Wahoos:

1. Albert Pujols (1B-StL)
There really shouldn’t be any argument about this one. Really the only other player you could possibly consider is Johan, but I’m not about to go there here. Plus, picking Pujols here allows me to focus a little bit more on pitching later on.

2. Joe Mauer (C-MIN)
This is the first draft this season I haven’t gone with Bard late for my catcher. I would have probably picked Manny here, but he went at the pick immediately previous to mine here. Mauer’s a great player, and I’m certainly not unhappy with him here at this pick. He posted a .324 EQa last season and BP’s PECOTA projects him to keep it up around there again this season. An absolute beast. From BP 2007: “We’re guessing all that talk about the Twins making a mistake by taking the hometown boy over Mark Prior with the first pick of the 2001 draft has calmed down a bit.”

3. Chris Carpenter (SP-StL)
PECOTA’s comparables for Carpenter? Gaylord Perry, Roger Clemens, Fergie Jenkins, and Esteban Loaiza. For the record, that’s three Hall of Famers and Esteban Loiaza. I’ve never been a huge Carpenter fan, but you can’ t argue with the numbers. He’s been as productive as any pitcher not named Johan over the past few years, and I justify picking him here because I got Pujols in the first round. He’ll pick up a bit of the slack from the missing hitter I would have picked here.

4. Hanley Ramirez (SS-FLA)
The two prospects Boston sent to the Marlins in the Beckett deal last offseason? Anibal Sanchez (he of the no-hitter last fall), and Ramirez. Speed is gonna go early, and Pujols and Mauer aren’t gonna help all that much in that department. Ramirez is going to end up being a poor man’s Jose Reyes, and it’s gonna hurt to watch him have all that success and not in a Red Sox uniform.

5. Joe Nathan (RP-MIN)
Rivera was gone at this pick, and I would have picked him instead, breaking my long-standing rule of not picking any Yankees. However, over the past few years Nathan has been just as good if not better than Mo at the end of the game. In my last draft, he was the first pick in the second round. I’m feeling really comfortable at this point. Even if Minnesota isn’t as good as they were last year, they’re still going to win a lot of games, and Nathan will be there at the end.

6. Bill Hall (SS,OF-MIL)
Hall’s been a big favorite of mine this season, and with good reason. He had a great year last year, with a VORP of 44.3, and bucked his previous trend of being a free swinger by seeing 4.15 pitches per plate appearance. He’ll be the Brew Crew’s starting center fielder, despite only being eligible at short in ESPN’s format to begin the year. His bat would be decidedly below average if he were playing left or right, but he ends up being an extremely valuable hitting center fielder, and has the wheels to adequately defend out there.

7. Daisuke Matsuzaka (SP-BOS)
First off, I refuse to refer to Matsuzaka-san as “Dice-K.” That is a pronunciation guide, not a nickname. But I digress. Finally, I get the big guy in one of my leagues. There are a lot of newfound Matsuzaka haters out there, using the excuse that he gave up two home runs to non-roster invitees on the Orioles the other day to compare him to Hideki Irabu (George Steinbrenner’s famous “Fat Toad”). Give me a break — Yankee fans are just scared. Repeat after me: it’s spring training. This guy is going to be straight money this year. He’ll win at least 15 games, and is gonna put up some impressive strikeout numbers to boot. I’ve said it before in this space, and I’ll say it again: the Red Sox rotation is just sick this season.

8. Alex Rios (OF-TOR)
Rios had a breakout season last time around which was unfortunately derailed by a staph infection in late June. The power he displayed early last season should come back with instruction during ST, so I expect Rios to be a real valuable player once again. The one troubling sign is his almost 3:1 K-BB ratio, so he’s gotta learn some more discipline at the plate to really take the next step.

9. Chipper Jones (3B-ATL)
Chipper is one of those players that you always forget about, then you look at his numbers and remember that he’s been one of the most productive players in the league for a long time. He’s been hampered by injuries the past two seasons, so hopefully the 35-year-old can stay healthy — despite those injuries, he put up a .332/.411/.592 EQ line (that’s EQA, EQOBP, and EQSLG respectively). He’ll be a 20-25 homer, 75 RBI guy if he plays most of the season. A drop in production to what you want at the hot corner in terms of a fantasy team, but that is offset to a certain extent across the diamond by Mr. Pujols.

10. Takashi Saito (RP-LAD)
Saito did an admirable job closing last year for the Dodgers, proving that he could succeed in the Major Leagues. I’d be a little worried if he were my first closer, but see Joe Nathan above. He was an absolute beast out of the bullpen down the stretch, and is a fantastic second option for closer.

11. Ian Kinsler (2B-TEX)
Another Fantasy 411 favorite, Kinsler provides some great value at 2nd base in the 11th round. He projects to hit around 20 home runs this year, playing half his games at launching pad Ameriquest Field. He has a higher career on-base percentage than Alfonso Soriano, which is impressive until you consider the fact that I do too. Anyway, it comes down to the fact that I’m getting really good value for my pick here, and he’ll probably start at 2nd for me for the foreseeable future.

12. Magglio Ordonez (OF-DET)
Like Chipper before him, Ordonez will be productive as long as he remains healthy. I figure if he’s my third outfielder, I’m in good shape. The good quality lineup around him will help, especially given the addition of the aging-but-still-f#$&ing-scary Gary Sheffield.

13. Frank Thomas (DH-TOR)
It might be too much to ask for a repeat of last year’s monster year as the full-time DH in Oakland, for which he garnered some MVP consideration. The move to the Rogers Centre (park factor of 1.026) from Oakland Coliseum (.984) should help him.

14. Adam Wainwright (SP,RP-STL)
A downright hero in last year’s playoffs for the World Champs, Wainwright threw that nasty curveball that struck Carlos Beltran out looking to end NLCS game 7. He’s moving back to the rotation this season with the return of a healthy Jason Isringhausen, and has had a monster spring. He’s not Chris Carpenter, but he’ll definitely be effective this year. There is a possibility as well that he’ll move back to the bullpen if Izzy can’t stay on the field.

15. J.D. Drew (OF-BOS)
Hey, if he stays healthy, he’ll be a great value here in the 15th round. If not, I can get rid of him for someone who is. It seems that I have a lot more flexibility in his case than the Red Sox do.

16. Jonathan Papelbon (SP,RP-BOS)
Either way, I get a productive pitcher. Paps has shown flashes of brilliance as a starter so far this sring, and has been projected as a starter for his entire career. His phenomenal success in the bullpen last season will make the Sox brass think long and hard if the closer competition between Joel Pineiro, Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin, and Julian TAVAREZ doesn’t work out. If that happens, I get another extremely valuable closer.

17. Dave Bush (SP-MIL)
I’ve written about him before, and this was probably a much better round to get him at than in the 11th in my last draft. I have a real good feeling about him this year, and he’ll certainly win more games given the development of the Brewers offense.

18. Alex Gordon (3B-KCR)
I’ve always said that the your success in fantasy is inversely correlated to the number of Royals you have on your roster. However, Gordon is set up to be such a dominant player at his position that I couldn’t pass him up. Even if he doesn’t win the starting job right out of camp (which he should), he provides valuable insurance for the injury-prone Chipper.

19. Bob Wickman (RP-ATL)
This just in: I have a glut of closers. I’ll definitely be looking to trade one of them for perhaps some outfield help. You never know how many games the Braves are going to win, and Wickman stands to save the lion’s share of those wins. If he stop being effective, look out for Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano to step into the role.

20. Ian Snell (SP-PIT)
Once again, a Fantasy 411 big time favorite for late-round value. Well, it doesn’t get much later than this– Snell was the last pick in the draft. This allows me to also perhaps package a starter in with one of the aforementioned closers in a trade. Snell puts up passable strikeout numbers, but got killed by lefties last year. That makes him a conditional starter based on what sort of lineup he’s facing.

All in all, I’m really happy with the way this one turned out.  I have good pitching depth, which I can probably trade out of to get some help on offense if some of my earlier picks decide to not pan out.  I have another draft tomorrow, so heads up for that.  Until then, happy drafting!